D.C.'s Political Report: New York Congressional and Statewide Races

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New York State Board of Elections

2006 New York Congressional and Statewide Races
Primary Filing Deadline: 7/13/06, Independent Filing Deadline: 8/22/06, Primary: 9/12/06, Nomination Deadline: 9/26/06, General Election 11/7/06,
Last Updated: November 10, 2006

Predictions, Notes, List of State Parties,

Governor, 49.4% in '02, George E. Pataki (R) retiring after 3^rd term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: Most Likely Governorship to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democrat, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic, Chuck Todd: Most Vulnerable Governor,

Att. Gen. Eliot L. Spitzer (D, Ind, WF) 69.0%, attorney / '02 Comptroller nominee former Assemblyman John J. Faso (R, Cns) 29.2%, author Malachy McCourt (G) 1.0%,

John Clifton (L) 0.4%,

Rent is Too Damn High Party candidate Jimmy McMillan (I) 0.3%,

Maura DeLuca (SW) 0.2%,

Lt. Governor - Tied with Gov. 63.7% in '02, 2^nd term, Mary O. Donohue (R) not seeking re-election, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic,

St. Sen. David A. Paterson (D, Ind, WF) 69.0%, Co. Exec. C. Scott Vanderhoef (R, Cns) 29.2%, Alison Duncan (G) 1.0%,

'98 nominee / '04 Senate nominee prof. Donald "Don" Silberger (L) 0.4%,

Ben O'Shaughnessy (SW) 0.2%,

Attorney General, 66.4% in '02, 2^nd term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic,

ex-HUD Sec. / '02 Gov. candidate Andrew M. Cuomo (D, WF) 57.4%, District Attorney Jeanine F. Pirro (R, Ind, Cns) 40.2%, Rachel Treichler (G) 1.4%,

'98 Gov. nominee Christopher B. "Chris" Garvey (L) 0.7%,

Martin Koppel (SW) 0.3%,

Comptroller, 50.4% in '02, 1^st term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic,

Alan G. Hevesi (D, Ind, WF) 56.4%, Co. Treas. J. Christopher Callaghan (R, Cns) 39.4%, '01 NYC Mayor candidate / educator Julia Willebrand (G) 2.8%,

insurance broker John J. Cain (L) 1.0%,

Willie Cotton (SW) 0.4%,

Senator, 55.2% in '00, 1^st term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic, Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Democrat, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic, Chuck Todd: 12th least vulnerable Senator, Scott Rasmussen's Balance of Power: Democrat,

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D, Ind, WF) 66.6%, ex-Yonkers Mayor John T. Spencer (R, Cns) 31.3%, Howie Hawkins (G) 1.2%,

Jeffrey T. "Jeff" Russell (L) 0.5%,

'04 presidential nominee / reporter Bill Van Auken (SEP) 0.2%,

Róger Calero (SW) 0.2%,

1st Congressional District, 56.2% in '04, 2^nd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Timothy H. "Tim" Bishop (D, Ind, WF) 61.3%, MLB VP Italo Zanzi (R, Cns) 38.7%,

2nd Congressional District, 66.6% in '04, 3^rd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Steve J. Israel (D, Ind, WF) 70.1%, John W. Bugler (R, Cns) 29.9%,

3rd Congressional District, 63.0% in '04, 7^th term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Republican Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Likely Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Republican Favored, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican,

Co. Leg. David "Dave" Mejias (D, WF) 44.2%, Peter T. King (R, Ind, Cns) 55.8%, Jim Brown (G),

PSP People's Party candidate Rocco Calise (I),

4th Congressional District, 63.0% in '04, 5^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Carolyn McCarthy (D, Ind, WF) 64.8%, ex-police officer Martin W. Blessinger (R, Cns) 35.2%,

5th Congressional District, 71.3% in '04, 12^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Gary L. Ackerman (D, Ind, WF), No Republican

6th Congressional District, unopposed in '04, 5^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Gregory W. Meeks (D), No Republican

7th Congressional District, 80.9% in '04, 4^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Joseph Crowley (D, WF) 83.6%, consultant / '02 Conservative Party nominee Kevin Brawley (R, Cns) 16.4%,

8th Congressional District, 80.5% in '04, 8^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Jerrold L. Nadler (D, WF) 83.4%, Eleanor Friedman (R) 14.7%, realtor / boxer Dennis E. Adornato (Cns) 1.8%,

9th Congressional District, 71.3% in '04 4^th term, might run for Mayor, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Anthony D. Weiner (D, WF), No Republican

10th Congressional District, 91.5% in '04, 12^th term, might retire
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Edolphus Towns (D) 91.9%, Jonathan H. Anderson (R) 6.0%, Ernest Johnson (Cns) 2.0%,

Eric Spruiell (WF),

11th Congressional District, 94.0% in '04, 12^th term, Major R. Owens (D) retiring, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

'04 candidate NYC council member Yvette D. Clarke (D) 89.4%, physician Stephen Finger (R, L) 7.8%, '04 nominee Mariana Blume (Cns) 1.6%,

Ollie McClean (Freedom Party) 1.2%,

Nancy Boyasko (SW/WI),

12th Congressional District, 86.3% in '04, 7^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Nydia M. Velázquez (D, WF) 89.4%, Allan E. Romaguera (R, Cns) 10.6%,

13th Congressional District, 59.0% in '04, 5^th term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Republican Favored, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican,

attorney Stephen A. Harrison (D, WF) 43.3%, Vito J. Fossella (R, Ind, Cns) 56.7%,

14th Congressional District, 81.0% in '04, 7^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Carolyn B. Maloney (D, Ind, WF) 84.2%, Daniel Maio (R) 15.8%, Alan Harris (Ind/WI),

15th Congressional District, 91.1% in '04, 18^th term, might retire
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Charles B. Rangel (D, WF) 93.8%, Edward Daniels (R) 6.2%,

16th Congressional District, 95.2% in '04, 9^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

José E. Serrano (D, WF) 95.5%, Ali Mohamed (R, Cns) 4.5%,

17th Congressional District, 76.1% in '04, 9^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Eliot L. Engel (D, WF) 75.8%, contractor James "Jim" Faulkner (R, Ind, Cns) 24.2%,

18th Congressional District, 69.8% in '04, 9^th term, might retire
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Nita M. Lowey (D, Ind?, WF) 70.3%, '04 nominee / businessman Richard A. Hoffman (R) 29.7%, consultant David Prunier (WI),

19th Congressional District, 66.7% in '04, 6^th term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Republican, Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Republican Favored, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican, Chuck Todd: 56th Most Vulnerable House Seat,

Songwriter John H. Hall (D) 51.2%, Sue W. Kelly (R, Ind, Cns) 48.8%,

20th Congressional District, 65.8% in '04, 4^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: No Clear Favorite, Cook Political Report: Toss up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up, Chuck Todd: 28th Most Vulnerable House Seat,

attorney Kirsten E. Rutnik Gillibrand (D, WF) 53.1%, John E. Sweeney (R, Ind, Cns) 46.9%, businessman Eric Sundwall (L),

21st Congressional District, 70.8% in '04, 9^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Michael R. McNulty (D, Ind, Cns, WF) 77.8%, '04 nominee / activist / attorney Warren Redlich (R, L) 22.2%,

22nd Congressional District, 67.2% in '04, 7^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Maurice D. Hinchey (D, Ind, WF), No Republican Attorney William A. Brenner (Cns)?,

23rd Congressional District, 70.7% in '04, 7^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

surgeon / '04 nominee Robert J. "Bob" Johnson (D, WF) 36.8%, John M. McHugh (R, Ind, Cns) 63.2%, W. L. Swarts (WI),

24th Congressional District, 56.9% in '04, Sherwood L. "Sherry" Boehlert (R) retiring after 11^th term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: 23nd Most Likely Seat to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: No Clear Favorite, Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Democrat,, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up / Tilt Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic, Chuck Todd: 11th Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Leans Democrat,

DA Michael A. Arcuri (D, Ind, WF) 53.8%, St. Sen. Raymond A. "Ray" Meier (R, Cns) 45.2%, Michael J. "Mike" Sylvia, III (L) 1.0%,

25th Congressional District, 90.4% in '04, 9^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Republican Favored, Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Likely Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up / Tilt Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Republican, Chuck Todd: 49th Most Vulnerable House Seat,

policy adviser Dan Maffei (D, WF) 49.1%, James T. Walsh (R, Ind, Cns) 50.9%,

26th Congressional District, 55.6% in '04, 4^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: 18th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Democratic, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up, Chuck Todd: 48th Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Leans Republican,

'04 nominee / businessman Jack R. Davis, Jr. (D, Ind, WF) 48.1%, Thomas M. Reynolds (R, Cns) 51.9%,

27th Congressional District, 50.7% in '04, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Brian M. Higgins (D, Ind, WF) 79.2%, Ass't. DA Michael J. McHale (R) 20.8%,

28th Congressional District, 72.6% in '04, 10^th term, might retire
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Louise McIntosh Slaughter (D, Ind, WF) 72.7%, Tonawanda Town councilman John E. Donnelly (R, Cns) 27.3%, Harold W. Schroeder (Cns/WI),

29th Congressional District, 50.6% in '04, 1^st term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Republican, Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up / Tilt Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Republican, Chuck Todd: 44th Most Vulnerable House Seat,

Navy vet Eric J. Massa (D, WF) 48.5%, John R. "Randy" Kuhl, Jr. (R, Ind, Cns) 51.5%,

1. Link to Predictions:

D.C.'s Political Report,
Washington Post's Chris Cillizza,
Campaign & Elections: Political Oddsmaker,
Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard,
Cook Political Report,
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball,
Roll Call Analysis,
National Journal's Chuck Todd,
Rothenberg Political Report,

2. D.C.'s Political Report's stars indicate the rating of the race from 1 star to 5 stars depending on its entertainment value.
The color indicates D.C.'s Political Report's prediction of the winning party.

= Democrat retain control, = Democrats take over control,

= Republican retain control, = Republicans take over control,

= Independent / 3rd Party retains control, = Independent / 3rd Party take over control

Bold indicates incumbent. Yellow district indicates open races.

Light Blue boxes indicates Democrats maintained control. Light Red boxes indicates Republicans maintained control.

Blue boxes indicates Democrats took control. Red boxes indicates Republicans took control.

3. Key to New York Political Parties:

(Cns) = Conservative Party
(D) = Democratic Party
(G) = Green Party
(I) = independent candidates
(Ind) = Independence Party (L) = Libertarian Party
(R) = Republican Party
(SE) = Socialist Equality Party
(SW) = Socialist Workers Party
(WF) = Working Families Party
(WI) = Write-in candidates