D.C.'s Political Report: Texas Congressional and Statewide Races

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Texas Secretary of State - Elections Division

2006 Texas Congressional and Statewide Races
Filing Deadline: 1/2/06, Primary: 3/7/06, Primary Run Off: 4/11/06, Independent Filing Deadline: 5/11/06, 3rd Party Filing Deadline: 5/30/06, Libertarian Party Convention: 6/10/06, General Election 11/7/06,
Last Updated: November 24, 2006

Predictions, Notes, List of State Parties,

Governor, 57.8% in '02, 2^nd term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Republican Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Solid Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Clear Advantage Republican, Chuck Todd: 19th Most Vulnerable Governor,

ex-U.S. Rep. Chris Bell (D) 29.8%, Rick Perry (R) 39.0%, St. Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 18.0%,

musician / author Richard "Kinky" Friedman (I) 12.6%,

'04 congressional candidate / fundraising consultant James S. Werner (L) 0.6%,

James "Patriot" Dillion (WI) 0.02%, José Aravena (SW/WI),

Lt. Governor, 51.8% in '02, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican,

ex-univ. project research dir. Maria Luisa Alvarado (D) 37.4%, David Dewhurst (R) 58.2%, mueseum docent Judy Baker (L) 4.4%,

Attorney General, 56.8% in '02, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican,

attorney David Van Os (D) 37.3%, Gregg Abbott (R) 59.5%, '02 nominee Jon Roland (L) 3.2%,

Comptroller, 64.2% in '02, 2^nd term, Carole Keeton Strayhorn (R) running for Governor
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican,

attorney / ex-St. Rep. Fred Head (D) 37.0%, Ag. Com'r. Susan Combs (R) 59.4%, Mike Burris (L) 3.5%,

Land Commissioner, 53.1% in '02, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican,

attorney VaLinda Hathcox (D) 40.9%, Jerry Patterson (R) 55.1%, Michael A. "Mike" French (L) 4.0%,

Agriculture Commissioner, 59.5% in '02 2^nd term, Susan Combs (R) running for Comptroller,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican,

school board member Hank Gilbert (D) 41.8%, St. Sen. Todd Staples (R) 54.8%, student Clay Woolam (L) 3.4%,

Railroad Commissioner, Charles Matthews (R) resigned,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican,

Dale Henry (D) 41.8%, Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) 54.0%, law student Tabitha Serrano (L) 4.2%,

Senate 65.1% in '00, 2^nd term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Solid Republican, Chuck Todd: 10th least vulnerable Senator, Scott Rasmussen's Balance of Power: GOP,

attorney Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 36.1%, Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 61.7%, consultant '02 nominee / '04 VP candidate Scott Lanier Jameson (L) 2.3%,

Amanda Ulman (SW/WI),

1st Congressional District, 61.5% in '04, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

contractor Roger L. Owen (D) 30.3%, Louis B. "Louie" Gohmert, Jr. (R) 68.0%, Donald Perkison (L) 1.7%,

2nd Congressional District, 55.5% in '04, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

environmental services consultant Gary E. Binderim (D) 32.7%, Lloyd "Ted" Poe (R) 65.6%, Justo J. Perez (L) 1.7%,

3rd Congressional District, 85.6% in '04, 8^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

retired USAF officer / sales director Dan Dodd (D) 34.9%, Sam Johnson (R) 62.5%, '04 candidate Christopher J. Claytor (L) 2.6%,

4th Congressional District, 68.4% in '04, 13^th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

professor Glenn Melancon (D) 33.3%, Ralph M. Hall (R) 64.6%, psychologist / consultant Kurt G. Helm (L) 2.1%,

5th Congressional District, 64.5% in '04, 2^nd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

businessman Charlie Thompson (D) 35.7%, Jeb Hensarling (R) 61.7%, Mike Nelson (L) 2.6%,

6th Congressional District, 66.0% in '04, 11^th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

veteran David T. Harris (D) 37.1%, Joe L. Barton (R) 60.5%, Carl Nulsen (L) 2.5%,

7th Congressional District, 64.1% in '04, 3^rd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

school teacher James "Jim" Henley (D) 38.5%, John A. Culberson (R) 59.2%, '04 nominee Drew P. Parks (L) 2.3%,

8th Congressional District, 68.9% in '04, 5^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

'04 nominee James "Jim" Wright (D) 32.8%, Kevin Brady (R) 67.2%, J. Michael Mclauchlan (L)?,

9th Congressional District, 72.2% in '04, 1^st term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Al Green (D), No Republican

10th Congressional District, 78.6% in '04, 1^st term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

ex-EPA official Ted Ankrum (D) 40.4%, Michael T. "Mike" McCaul (R) 55.3%, gun right advocate / '04 Presidential nominee Michael Badnarik (L) 4.3%,

11th Congressional District, 76.8% in '04, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

No Democrat K. Michael Conaway (R),

12th Congressional District, 72.3% in '04, 5^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

John R. Morris (D) 31.1%, Kay Granger (R) 67.0%, Gardner C. Osborne (L) 2.0%,

13th Congressional District, 92.3% in '04, 6^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

lay preacher Roger J. Waun (D) 23.1%, William M. "Mac" Thornberry (R) 74.3%, Jim Thompson (L) 2.6%,

14th Congressional District, unopposed in '04, 5^th / 8^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

ex-Texas Cattleman Assoc. Exec. Dir. Shane R. Sklar (D) 39.8%, Ronald E. "Ron" Paul (R) 60.2%, immigration attorney Eugene J. Flynn (L)?,

15th Congressional District, 57.8% in '04, 5^th term
Special Election Filing Deadline: 8/25/06, Special Election: 11/7/06,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Rubén Hinojosa (D) 61.4%, ex-St. Rep. Paul B. Haring (R) 24.2%, '06 primary candidate salesman Eddie Zamora (R) 14.4%,

16th Congressional District, 67.5% in '04, 5^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Silvestre Reyes (D) 78.7%, No Republican Gordon R. Strickland (L) 21.3%,

17th Congressional District, 51.2% in '04, 8^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Likely Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic,

Chet Edwards (D) 58.1%, Iraqi veteran Van Taylor (R) 40.3%, Guillermo Acosta (L) 1.6%,

18th Congressional District, 88.9% in '04, 6^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Sheila Jackson Lee (D) 76.6%, Ahmad Hassan (R) 19.1%, Patrick Warren (L) 4.3%,

Antony Dutrow (SW/WI),

19th Congressional District, 58.4% in '04, 2^nd term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

Robert Ricketts (D) 29.7%, Randy Neugebauer (R) 67.6%, '02 nominee Fred Jones (L) 2.4%,

Mike Sadler (WI) 0.3%,

20th Congressional District, 65.5% in '04, 4^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Charlie A. Gonzalez (D) 87.4%, teacher Robert Sanchez (R/WI), retired Navy Commander / '02 Senate primary candidate / '00 Reform Party candidate / '02 Senate candidate / '04 candidate Michael Idrogo (L) 12.6%,

21st Congressional District, 61.5% in '04, 10^th term,
Special Election Filing Deadline: 8/25/06, Special Election: 11/7/06,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

'02 nominee / USAF Veteran / teacher John Courage (D) 24.5%, retired air force attorney / '00 Senate nominee / '02 Senate candidate / '06 Senate candidate Gene Kelly (D) 9.0%, Lamar S. Smith (R) 60.1%, technical writer James Arthur Strohm (L) 2.0%,

consultant Tommy Calvert (I) 2.6%,

computer programmer James Lyle Peterson (I) 1.1%,

automotive management Mark J. Rossano (I) 0.7%,

22nd Congressional District, 55.2% in '04, Tom DeLay (R) resigning during 11^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: 6th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Democratic, Cook Political Report: Toss up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Toss up, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Democratic, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up, Chuck Todd: 10th Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Tossup,

ex-U.S. Rep. Nicholas V. "Nick" Lampson (D) 51.8%, No Republican
Houston Councilor Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R/WI) 41.8%, retired Air Force major Don Richardson (R/WI) 0.3%, electrical engineer Bob Smither (L) 6.1%,

Joe Reasbeck (WI) 0.1%,

22nd Congressional District SPECIAL ELECTION, 55.2% in '04, Tom DeLay (R) resigning during 11^th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Lean Democrat, Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Toss Up, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up, Chuck Todd: 3rd Most Vulnerable House Seat,

No Democrat Houston Councilor Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) 62.1%,
physician Giannibecego Hoa Tran (R) 2.1%, retired Air Force Force Maj. Don Richardson (D) 6.0%, ex-U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman (R) 11.0%, electrical engineer Bob Smither (L) 18.9%,

23rd Congressional District, 69.3% in '04, 7^th term, District Declared Unconstitutionally Drawn, Polls,
Special Election Filing Deadline: 8/25/06, Special Election: 11/7/06, Run-off: 12/12/06
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Republican Favored, Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Republican, Chuck Todd: 55th Most Vulnerable House Seat,

ex-U.S. Rep. Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) 19.9%,
ex-San Antonio fire chief Albert Uresti (D) 11.7%, businessman Lukin Gilliland (D) 11.1%, community liaison August G. "Augie" Beltran (D) 2.1%, businessman Adrian DeLeon (D) 1.8%,
Vietnam Vet Rick Bolaños (D) dropped out and endorse Gilliland (D) but still got 2.1%, Henry Bonilla (R) 48.6%, computer engineer Craig T. Stephens (I) 2.7%,

23rd Congressional District Runoff Election, 69.3% in '04, 7^th term, District Declared Unconstitutionally Drawn, Polls,
Special Election Filing Deadline: 8/25/06, Special Election: 11/7/06, Run-off: 12/12/06
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Republican Favored, Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Republican, Chuck Todd: 55th Most Vulnerable House Seat,

ex-U.S. Rep. Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) 54.3%, Henry Bonilla (R) 45.7%,

24th Congressional District, 64.0% in '04, 1^st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

programmer / '04 nominee Gary R. Page (D) 37.1%, Kenny E. Marchant (R) 59.9%, Mark Frohman (L) 3.0%,

25th Congressional District, 67.6% in '04, 6^th term,
Special Election Filing Deadline: 8/25/06, Special Election: 11/7/06,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Lloyd Doggett (D) 67.3%, chiropractor / computer programmer Grant Rostig (R) 26.3%, oil landman Barbara Cunningham (L) 4.2%,

systems analyst Brian Parrett (I) 2.2%,

26th Congressional District, 65.8% in '04, 2^nd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

Tim Barnwell (D) 37.4%, Michael C. Burgess (R) 60.1%, Rich Haas (L) 2.5%,

27th Congressional District, 63.1% in '04, 12^th term, might retire
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Solomon P. Ortiz (D) 56.8%, marine surveyor / businessman / ex-Ingleside Mayor '04 nominee William "Willie" Vaden (R) 38.9%, Robert Powell (L) 4.3%,

28th Congressional District, 59.0% in '04, 1^st term, Polls,
Special Election Filing Deadline: 8/25/06, Special Election: 11/7/06,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Henry Cuellar (D) 67.7%, attorney Frank Enriquez (D) 20.1%, No Republican architect / bar owner Ron Avery (C) 12.2%,

29th Congressional District, 94.1% in '04, 7^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Gene Green (D) 73.5%, minister Eric Story (R) 24.4%, '00 & '04 nominee Clifford Lee Messina (L) 2.0%,

30th Congressional District, 93.0% in '04, 7^th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,

Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) 80.2%, attorney Wilson Aurbach (R) 17.6%, retired teacher / '98, '00, '02 & '04 nominee Ken Ashby (L) 2.2%,

31st Congressional District, 64.8% in '04, 2^nd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

attorney Mary Beth Harrell (D) 38.9%, John R. Carter (R) 58.4%, Matt McAdoo (L) 2.7%,

32nd Congressional District, 54.3% in '04, 5^th term, , Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,

arbitrator Will Pryor (D) 41.3%, Pete Sessions (R) 56.4%, John B. Hawley (L) 2.3%,

1. Link to Predictions:

D.C.'s Political Report,
Washington Post's Chris Cillizza,
Campaign & Elections: Political Oddsmaker,
Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard,
Cook Political Report,
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball,
Roll Call Analysis,
National Journal's Chuck Todd,
Rothenberg Political Report,

2. D.C.'s Political Report's stars indicate the rating of the race from 1 star to 5 stars depending on its entertainment value.
The color indicates D.C.'s Political Report's prediction of the winning party.

= Democrat retain control, = Democrats take over control,

= Republican retain control, = Republicans take over control,

= Independent / 3rd Party retains control, = Independent / 3rd Party take over control

Bold indicates incumbent. Yellow district indicates open races.

Light Blue boxes indicates Democrats maintained control. Light Red boxes indicates Republicans maintained control.

Blue boxes indicates Democrats took control. Red boxes indicates Republicans took control.

3. Key to Texas Political Parties:
(C) = Constitution Party
(D) = Democratic Party
(I) = independent candidates (L) = Libertarian Party
(R) = Republican Party
(WI) = Write-in candidates