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D.C.'s Political Report: Pennsylvania Congressional and Statewide Races

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Pennsylvania Department of State - Bureau of Commissions, Elections and Legislation
2006 Pennsylvania Congressional and Statewide Races
Primary Filing Deadline: 3/7/06, Primary: 5/16/06, Independent Filing Deadline: 8/1/06, General Election 11/7/06,
Last Updated: November 10, 2006
Predictions, Notes, List of State Parties,
Governor, 53.6% in '02, 1st term, next electon in 2006, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic, Rothenberg Political Report: Safe Democrat, Chuck Todd: 13th Least Vulnerable Governor,
Edward G. "Ed" Rendell (D) 60.4%, ex-football player Lynn C. Swann (R) 39.6%, Ronald Satz (L/WI), Marakay J. Rogers (G/WI), Hagan Smith (C/WI), PA Clean Sweep founder Russ Diamond (WI),
Lt. Governor - Tied with Gov., 53.6% in '02, 1st term, next electon in 2006, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic,
Catherine Baker Knoll (D) 60.4%, Co. Comm'r. James R. "Jim" Matthews (R) 39.6%,
Senator, 52.5% in '00, 2nd term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democrat, Chris Cillizza: Most Likely Senate Seat to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Democratic, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Democratic, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic, Chuck Todd: Most vulnerable Senator, Scott Rasmussen's Balance of Power: Democrat, Rothenberg Political Report: Likely Democratic, Washington Post's Countdown: Leans Democrat,
St. Treas. Robert P. "Bob" Casey Jr. (D) 58.7%, Richard J. "Rick" Santorum (R) 41.3%, Carl Romanelli (G/WI), Penn State engineer & '00 congressional nominee Thomas A. "Tom" Martin (L/WI), Carl Edwards (C/WI),
1st Congressional District, 86.3% in '04, 4th term, might run for mayor in 2007,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
Robert A. "Bob" Brady (D) 100%, No Republican
2nd Congressional District, 88.0% in '04, 6th term, might run for mayor in 2007,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
Chaka Fattah (D) 88.6%, Michael Gessner (R) 9.2%, chess instructor David G. "Dave" Baker (G) 2.2%,
3rd Congressional District, 60.1% in '04, 6th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,
'04 nominee / retired prof. Steven C. Porter (D) 42.1%, Philip S. "Phil" English (R) 53.6%, Timothy "Tim" Hagberg (C) 4.3%,
4th Congressional District, 63.1% in '04, 3rd term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Republican, Cook Political Report: Toss up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up, Chuck Todd: 30th Most Vulnerable House Seat,
fundraiser Jason Altmire (D) 51.9%, Melissa A. Hart (R) 48.1%,
5th Congressional District, 88.0% in '04, 5th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,
ex-Co. Comm'r. / businessman Donald L. Hilliard (D) 40.0%, John E. Peterson (R) 60.0%,
6th Congressional District, 51.0% in '04, 2nd term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: 11th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: No Clear Favorite, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Toss Up, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic, Chuck Todd: 17th Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Tossup,
ex-Co. Att. / '04 nominee Lois Murphy (D) 49.4%, Jim Gerlach (R) 50.6%,
7th Congressional District, 58.8% in '04, 10th term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Democratic, Chris Cillizza: 12th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Leans Democratic, Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic, Chuck Todd: 2nd Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Leans Democrat,
ex-NSC Defense Dir. / Navy Admiral Joseph A. "Joe" Sestak (D) 56.4%, Curt Weldon (R) 43.6%,
8th Congressional District, 55.3% in '04, 1st term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: No Clear Favorite, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Leans Republican, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up, Chuck Todd: 21th Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Tossup,
Iraqi veteran Patrick J. Murphy (D) 50.3%, Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) 49.7%, '04 Democratic candidate / '02 Republican candidate Tom Lingenfelter (I),
9th Congressional District, 69.6% in '04, 3rd term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,
Tony Barr (D) 39.6%, William "Bill" Shuster (R) 60.4%,
10th Congressional District, 92.8% in '04, 4th term, Polls
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: 4th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Leans Democratic, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Leaning Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Lean Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up, Chuck Todd: 7th Most Vulnerable House Seat, Washington Post's Countdown: Leans Democrat,
prof. Christopher P. "Chris" Carney (D) 53.0%, Donald L. "Don" Sherwood (R) 47.0%,
11th Congressional District, 94.4% in '04, 11th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
Paul E. Kanjorski (D) 72.4%, Chiropractor Joseph F. Leonardi (R) 27.6%,
12th Congressional District, unopposed in '04, 17th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, Evans & Novack's Outlook: Likely Democratic, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
John P. Murtha (D) 60.7%, Washington Co. Comm'r. Diana L. Irey (R) 39.3%,
13th Congressional District, 55.7% in '04, 1st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
Allyson Y. Schwartz (D) 66.1%, Raj Peter Bhakta (R) 33.9%,
14th Congressional District, unopposed in '04, 6th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
Michael F. "Mike" Doyle (D) 90.1%, No Republican prof. Titus North (G) 9.9%,
15th Congressional District, 58.6% in '04, 1st term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,
Northampton Co. councilor Charles M. Dertinger (D) 44.1%, Charles W. "Charlie" Dent (R) 52.8%, Greta Browne (G) 3.0%,
16th Congressional District, 64.4% in '04, 5th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,
prof. / '04 nominee author Lois Kathryn Herr (D) 39.5%, Joseph R. Pitts (R) 56.6%, management consultant John A. Murphy (Populist) 3.9%,
17th Congressional District, 59.1% in '04, 7th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat, New York Times Ratings: Safe Democrat, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Democratic,
T. Timothy Holden (D) 64.6%, Afghan veteran Matthew A. Wertz (R) withdrew and still got 35.4%,
18th Congressional District, 62.8% in '04, 2nd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican,
businessman Chad Kluko (D) 42.2%, Tim Murphy (R) 57.8%,
19th Congressional District, 91.5% in '04, 3rd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Safe Republican, Cook Political Report: Solid Republican, New York Times Ratings: Safe Republican, Roll Call Analysis: Safe Republican,
college prof. / ex-school board pres. Philip J. "Phil" Avillo, Jr. (D) 33.5%, Todd Platts (R) 64.0%, Union Township Auditor Derf W. Maitland (G) 2.5%,

1. Link to Predictions:
D.C.'s Political Report,
Washington Post's Chris Cillizza,
Campaign & Elections: Political Oddsmaker,
Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard,
Cook Political Report,
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball,
Roll Call Analysis,
National Journal's Chuck Todd,
Rothenberg Political Report,

2. D.C.'s Political Report's stars indicate the rating of the race from 1 star to 5 stars depending on its entertainment value.
The color indicates D.C.'s Political Report's prediction of the winning party.
= Democrat retain control, = Democrats take over control,
= Republican retain control, = Republicans take over control,
= Independent / 3rd Party retains control, = Independent / 3rd Party take over control
Bold indicates incumbent. Yellow district indicates open races.
Light Blue boxes indicates Democrats maintained control. Light Red boxes indicates Republicans maintained control.
Blue boxes indicates Democrats took control. Red boxes indicates Republicans took control.

3. Key to Pennsylvania Political Parties:
(C) = Constitution Party
(D) = Democratic Party
(G) = Green Party 		(I) = independent candidates
(L) = Libertarian Party
(R) = Republican Party
(WI) = Write-in candidates


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