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New York State Board of Elections
2004 New York Congressional and Statewide Races
Presidential Primary Filing Deadline: 1/2/04, Presidential Primary: 3/2/04, Filing Period: 7/15/04, Primary: 9/14/04, Presidential / Independent Filing Deadline: 8/17/04, Nomination Deadline: 9/20/04,
Last Updated: December 26, 2004
Predictions, Notes, List of State Parties,
President, 35.2% in '00, 1st term, Current Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Kerry, Cook Political Report: Solid Kerry, Washington Post: Kerry, Washington Times: Kerry, John Zogby: Kerry, Campaign & Elections: Oddsmaker: 2:1 Kerry,
U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry (D 56.6%, WF 1.8%) 58.4%, George W. Bush (R 38.0%, Cns 2.1%) 40.1%, Ralph Nader (Ind 1.1%, Peace and Justice 0.2%) 1.4%,
Michael Badnarik (L) 0.2%,
Róger Calero (SW) 0.03%,
Michael Peroutka (WI) 0.003%, David Cobb (WI) 0.001%, Van Auken (WI) 0.00003%, write in 0.0001%,
Senator, 54.6% in '98, 1st term, next election in 2004, Current Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic, Larry Sabato: Solid Democratic, New York Times: Remains Democratic, Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat, Campaign & Elections: Oddsmaker: 20:1 Democrat,
Charles E. Schumer (D 65.4%, Ind 3.2%, WF 2.5%) 71.2%, St. AM Howard D. Mills, III (R) 24.2%, '02 Congressional nominee ophthalmologist Marilyn F. O'Grady (Cns) 3.3%,
'00 Socialist Party Presidential nominee / peace activist David McReynolds (G) 0.5%,
'98 Lt. Gov. nominee Don Silberger (L) 0.3%,
developer ex-City Commr. Abe Hirschfeld (Builders) 0.2%,
national party chair Martin Koppell (SW) 0.2%,
1st Congressional District, 50.2% in '02, 1st term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 3:2 Democrat, Rothenberg Political Report: Watch List, Larry Sabato: Leans Democratic,
Timothy H. "Tim" Bishop (D 50.6%, Ind 3.4%, WF 2.1%) 56.2%, ex-DoT official William "Bill" Manger, Jr. (R 39.8%, Cns 4.0%) 43.8%,
2nd Congressional District, 58.5% in '02, 2nd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 3:1 Democrat,
Steve J. Israel (D 60.7%, Ind 3.9%, WF 2.0%) 66.6%, Richard Hoffmann (R 30.1%, Cns 3.3%) 33.4%,
3rd Congressional District, 71.9% in '02, 6th term, might run for Governor
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 9:1 Republican,
businessman Blair H. Mathies, Jr. (D) 37.0%, Peter T. King (R 55.6%, Cns 4.4%, Ind 2.9%) 63.0%,
4th Congressional District, 56.3% in '02, 4th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 3:2 Democrat, Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic,
Carolyn McCarthy (D 58.5%, WF 1.7%, Ind 2.7%) 63.0%, Mayor James A. Garner (R 33.6%, Cns 3.4%) 37.0%,
5th Congressional District, 92.3% in '02, 11th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 5:1 Democrat,
Gary L. Ackerman (D 68.0%, Ind 1.7%, WF 1.6%) 71.3%, commodities trader Stephen Graves (R 25.6%, Cns 2.3%) 27.9%, ex-INS inspector / '04 GOP candidate Gonzalo "Jun" Policarpio, Jr. (For All Americans) 0.7%,
6th Congressional District, 96.5% in '02, 4th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 100:1 Democrat,
Gregory W. Meeks (D 96.5%, WF 3.5%) 100%, No Republican
7th Congressional District, 73.3% in '02, 3rd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 9:1 Democrat,
Joseph Crowley (D 77.9%, WF 3.0%) 80.9%, attorney Joseph Cinquemain (R 16.9%, Cns 2.1%) 19.1%,
8th Congressional District, 76.1% in '02, 7th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 20:1 Democrat,
Jerrold L. Nadler (D 76.5%, WF 4.0%) 80.5%, attorney Peter Hort (R 17.5%, Ind 1.2%, Cns 0.8%) 19.5%, Millie Sanchez (SW/WI),
9th Congressional District, 65.7% in '02 3rd term, might run for Mayor,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 100:1 Democrat,
Anthony D. Weiner (D 68.5%, WF 2.8%) 71.3%, journalist / ex-teacher / '02 Governor candidate Gerard J. "Jerry" Cronin (R 25.0%, Ind 1.0%, Cns 2.6%) 28.7%,
10th Congressional District, 97.8% in '02, 11th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 50:1 Democrat,
Edolphus Towns (D 87.6%, WF 3.9%) 91.5%, prof. Harvey R. Clarke (R) 7.5%, Mariana Blume (Cns) 1.0%,
11th Congressional District, 86.6% in '02, 11th term, retiring in 2006
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 9:1 Democrat,
Major R. Owens (D 87.0%, WF 7.0%) 94.0%, No Republican Sol Lieberman (Cns) 2.9%,
Lorraine Stevens (Ind) 3.1%,
12th Congressional District, 95.8% in '02, 6th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 9:1 Democrat,
Nydia M. Velázquez (D 80.3%, WF 5.9%) 86.3%, Paul A. Rodriguez (R 12.6%, Cns 1.2%) 13.7%,
13th Congressional District, 69.6% in '02, 4th term, might run for Mayor, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 9:1 Republican,
ex-St. AM / NY Supreme Court Justice Frank J. Barbaro (D 37.7%, Ind 1.4%, WF 1.9%) 41.0%, Vito J. Fossella (R 53.6%, Cns 5.3%) 59.0%,
14th Congressional District, 75.3% in '02, 6th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 9:1 Democrat,
Carolyn B. Maloney (D 76.3%, Ind 2.0%, WF 2.6%) 81.0%, banker / '02 nominee Anton Srdanovic (R 18.2%, Cns 0.7%) 18.9%,
15th Congressional District, 88.5% in '02, 17th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 20:1 Democrat,
Charles B. Rangel (D 86.5%, WF 4.7%) 91.1%, Kenneth P. Jefferson, Jr. (R) 7.0%, physician Jessie Fields (Ind) 1.9%,
16th Congressional District, 92.1% in '02, 8th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 10:1 Democrat,
José E. Serrano (D 91.0%, WF 4.2%) 95.2%, Ali Mohamed (R 4.2%, Cns 0.6%) 4.8%,
17th Congressional District, 62.6% in '02, 8th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 3:1 Democrat,
Eliot L. Engel (D 73.3%, WF 2.8%) 76.1%, Matthew I. Brennan (R) 21.9%, consultant / '02 nominee Kevin Brawley (Cns) 1.9%,
18th Congressional District, 92.0% in '02, 8th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 20:1 Democrat,
Nita M. Lowey (D 65.0%, Ind 3.0%, WF 1.8%) 69.8%, Richard A. Hoffman (R) 30.2%,
19th Congressional District, 70.0% in '02, 5th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 4:1 Republican,
consultnat Michael Jaliman (D) 33.3%, Sue W. Kelly (R 57.8%, Cns 4.5%, Ind 4.3%) 66.7%,
20th Congressional District, 73.3% in '02, 3nd term, might run for Governor
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 7:1 Republican,
ex-teacher Doris F. Kelly (D) 33.7%, John E. Sweeney (R 57.0%, Cns 3.9%, Ind 4.9%) 65.8%, Morris N. Guller (Independent Centrist) 0.5%,
21st Congressional District, 75.1% in '02, 8th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 6:1 Democrat,
Michael R. McNulty (D 61.0%, Cns 0.3%, Ind 4.1%, WF 2.5%) 70.8%, activist / attorney Warren Redlich (R) 29.2%,
22nd Congressional District, 64.2% in '02, 6th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 7:1 Democrat,
Maurice D. Hinchey (D 59.6%, Ind 4.1%, WF 3.4%) 67.2%, tax attorney William A. Brenner (R) 32.8%,
23rd Congressional District, unopposed in '02, 6th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 7:1 Republican,
surgeon Robert J. Johnson (D) 29.3%, John M. McHugh (R 60.1%, Cns 3.9%, Ind 6.6%) 70.7%,
24th Congressional District, 70.7% in '02, 10th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 4:1 Republican,
prof. Jeffrey A. "Jeff" Miller (D) 33.9%, Sherwood L. "Sherry" Boehlert (R 51.1%, Ind 5.8%) 56.9%, Co. Leg. / Dr. / '02 & '04 Republican candidate & '02 Conservative party nominee David L. "Dave" Walrath (Cns) 9.2%,
25th Congressional District, 72.3% in '02, 8th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 100:1 Republican,
No Democrat James T. Walsh (R 74.2%, Cns 6.5%, Ind 9.6%) 90.4%, Howie Hawkins (Peace and Justice) 9.6%,
26th Congressional District, 73.7% in '02, 3rd term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 6:1 Republican,
businessman / ex-GOPer Jack R. Davis, Jr. (D 41.1%, WF 3.2%) 44.4%, Thomas M. Reynolds (R 48.5%, Cns 3.8%, Ind 3.3%) 55.6%,
27th Congressional District, 69.0% in '02, Jack Quinn (R) retiring after 6th term, Polls,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Campaign & Election's Odds: 1:1,
St. AM Brian M. Higgins (D 45.0%, Ind 2.8%, WF 2.9%) 50.7%, Co. Compt. Nancy A. Naples (R 44.3%, Cns 5.0%) 49.3%,
28th Congressional District, 62.5% in '02, 9th term
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Campaign & Election's Odds: 3:1 Democrat,
Louise McIntosh Slaughter (D 68.4%, WF 4.2%) 72.6%, ex-defense dept. official Michael D. Laba (R 22.2%, Cns 2.5%) 24.8%, community activist Francina J. "Fran" Cartonia (Ind) 2.6%,
29th Congressional District, 73.1% in '02, Amory R. Houghton, Jr. (R) retiring after 9th term,
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, Campaign & Election's Odds: 5:4 Republican, Cook Political Report: Likely Republican,
ex-congressional aide Samara "Sam" Barend (D 38.7%, WF 2.1%) 40.8%, St. Sen. John R. "Randy" Kuhl, Jr. (R) 50.6%, Co. Leg. Mark W. Assini (Cns) 6.4%,
attorney John Ciampoli (Ind) 2.1%,

1. Link to Predictions:
D.C.'s Political Report
Campaign & Elections: Political Oddsmaker
Cook Political Report
Rothenberg Political Report
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
John Zogby

2. D.C.'s Political Report's stars indicate the rating of the race from 1 star to 5 stars depending on its entertainment value.
The color indicates D.C.'s Political Report's prediction of the winning party.
= Democrat retain control, = Democrats take over control,
= Republican retain control, = Republicans take over control,
= Independent / 3rd Party retains control, = Independent / 3rd Party take over control
Bold indicates incumbent. Yellow district indicates open races.
Light Blue boxes indicates Democrats maintained control. Light Red boxes indicates Republicans maintained control.
Blue boxes indicates Democrats took control. Red boxes indicates Republicans took control.

3. Key to New York Political Parties:
(Cns) = Conservative Party
(C) = Constitution Party
(D) = Democratic Party
(G) = Green Party
(Ind) = Independence Party
(L) = Libertarian Party
(Peace and Justice) = Peace and Justice Party
(R) = Republican Party
(RtL) = Right to Life Party
(SC) = School Choice Party
(SE) = Socialist Equality Party
(SW) = Socialist Workers Party
(WF) = Working Families Party
(WI) = Write-in candidates


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